Calm
Prices are low, interest is small. Anyone buying now needs patience.
FIG. 04
水車 SUISHA · WATERWHEEL
SIDE VIEW
SCALE 1:50
水車SUISHAWaterwheel. One cycle follows the next.
The path / Station 03
[03 / 06] 忍 SHINOBU · ENDURANCE
The bubble bursts.They stay.
Why Bitcoin is scarce, how halvings work and why patience helps in market cycles.
From history
The highest point isn’t the goal
On 29 December 1989, Japan’s Nikkei stock index closes at 38,916 points. Shortly afterwards the bubble bursts. Many give up – but not the Mrs. Watanabes: they adapt their strategies and turn to the currency market.
教訓 Lesson
Markets move in cycles. If you know that, you don’t buy out of greed or sell out of fear.
Lesson 03.2
A fixed cap: 21 million
New bitcoin are created as a reward for confirming blocks. This reward halves roughly every four years – the halving. That’s how Bitcoin becomes scarcer and scarcer over time.
- 200950BTC per blockLaunch
- 201225BTC per block1st halving
- 201612.5BTC per block2nd halving
- 20206.25BTC per block3rd halving
- 20243.125BTC per block4th halving
Worked example
The cost-average principle
You invest the same amount every month. When the price is low you get more units, when it’s high you get fewer. Over a whole cycle, this smooths out your entry price.
- Paid in
- –
- Ø entry price
- –
- Value at the end
- –
- Ø price over the period
- –
Worked example with made-up prices for learning purposes. Not a forecast, not a recommendation. You can lose money even with regular amounts.
Upswing
Prices rise, the media start reporting again. Many people buy in.
Euphoria
Everyone’s talking about it, risks get overlooked. This is where bubbles form.
Downturn
Prices fall, fear takes over. Many sell at the worst possible moment.
What we offer
Understand instead of speculate
“Knowledge for investors” is about principles, not tips: why many people take a long-term view of Bitcoin, how DCA works, what risks leverage and loans carry and how to store assets safely.
| Offer | Content | Format |
|---|---|---|
| [01] | Knowledge for investorsUnderstanding Bitcoin, DCA, storage, market cycles, risks of leverage | One-to-one session |
| [02] | Monthly market reportMarket situation, new narratives, interesting projects – put into context | Subscription, PDF or portal |
Do you recommend buying Bitcoin?
No. We explain why people invest in Bitcoin and how to do it safely. Whether you invest, and how much, is up to you.
Is DCA a guarantee against losses?
No. DCA smooths out the entry price and takes the pressure off the decision. If the price falls for good, you still lose.
What is leverage?
With leverage or a loan, you invest more money than you actually have. This multiplies gains, but also losses – up to losing everything. We explain how it works, but we don’t recommend leverage.
Is the advice for professionals too?
Yes. We advise private individuals as well as asset managers or family offices who want to understand Bitcoin as a strategic topic.
Wrap-up
Station 03 complete
You now know why Bitcoin is scarce and why patience helps in cycles.
試験 SHIKEN · Quiz · 3 questions
Three short questions on station 03. Get them all right and the station is complete – then you move on.
[1/3]What’s the maximum number of bitcoin there will ever be?
[2/3]What happens at the halving?
[3/3]What does cost averaging (DCA) describe?
済
Passed! Station 03 is marked as complete on your path map.
The door is open
Get to know us in a free intro call. We listen, put things in context and show you the next step – without any buy recommendation.
Intro call →